Waubonsee Community College

Willful ignorance, the mismeasure of uncertainty, Herbert I. Weisberg, Correlation Research, Inc., Needham, MA

eng

Includes bibliographical references and index

index present

non fiction

Willful ignorance

bibliography

778417695

Herbert I. Weisberg, Correlation Research, Inc., Needham, MA

the mismeasure of uncertainty

"An original account of willful ignorance and how this principle relates to modern probability and statistical methods Through a series of colorful stories about great thinkers and the problems they chose to solve, the author traces the historical evolution of probability and explains how statistical methods have helped to propel scientific research. However, the past success of statistics has depended on vast, deliberate simplifications amounting to willful ignorance, and this very success now threatens future advances in medicine, the social sciences, and other fields. Limitations of existing methods result in frequent reversals of scientific findings and recommendations, to the consternation of both scientists and the lay public. Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasure of Uncertainty exposes the fallacy of regarding probability as the full measure of our uncertainty. The book explains how statistical methodology, though enormously productive and influential over the past century, is approaching a crisis. The deep and troubling divide between qualitative and quantitative modes of research, and between research and practice, are reflections of this underlying problem. The author outlines a path toward the re-engineering of data analysis to help close these gaps and accelerate scientific discovery. Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasure of Uncertainty presents essential information and novel ideas that should be of interest to anyone concerned about the future of scientific research. The book is especially pertinent for professionals in statistics and related fields, including practicing and research clinicians, biomedical and social science researchers, business leaders, and policy-makers"--, Provided by publisher"This provocative new book posits how the tacit principle of "willful ignorance" has led to a deep divide between qualitative and quantitative modes of research that will increasingly constrain scientific progress unless bridged by a broadened conception of statistical methodology"--, Provided by publisher

1. The opposite of certainty -- Two dead ends -- Analytical engines -- What is probability? -- Uncertainty -- Willful ignorance -- Toward a new science -- 2. A quiet revolution -- Thinking the unthinkable -- Inventing probability -- Statistics -- The taming of chance -- The ignorance fallacy -- The dilemma of science -- 3. A matter of chance -- Origins -- Probability -- The famous correspondence -- What did not happen next -- Against the odds -- 4. Hardly touched upon -- The mathematics of chance -- Empirical frequences -- A quantum of certainty -- 5. A mathematician of Basel -- Publication at last -- The art of conjecturing -- A tragic ending -- 6. A defect of character -- Man without a country -- A fraction of chances -- 7. Classical probability -- Revolutionary reverends -- From chances to probability -- 8. Babel -- The great unraveling -- Probability as a relative frequency -- Probability as a logical relationship -- Probability as a subjective assessment -- Probability as a propensity -- 9. Probability and reality -- The razor's edge -- What Fisher knew -- What reference class? -- A postulate of ignorance -- Laplace's error -- 10. The decision factory -- Beyond moral certainty -- Decisions, decisions -- Machine-made knowledge -- 11. The lottery in science -- Scientific progress -- Fooled by causality -- Statistics for humans: Bias or ambiguity? -- Regression toward the Mean -- 12. Trust, but verify -- A new problem -- Trust, ... -- ... But verify -- The future -- Mindful ignorance