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The Resource Calculated risks : how to know when numbers deceive you, Gerd Gigerenzer

Calculated risks : how to know when numbers deceive you, Gerd Gigerenzer

Label
Calculated risks : how to know when numbers deceive you
Title
Calculated risks
Title remainder
how to know when numbers deceive you
Statement of responsibility
Gerd Gigerenzer
Creator
Subject
Genre
Language
eng
Summary
Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity. To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap. This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives
Cataloging source
DLC
http://library.link/vocab/creatorName
Gigerenzer, Gerd
Dewey number
519.2
Illustrations
illustrations
Index
index present
LC call number
QA273.15
LC item number
.G54 2002
Literary form
non fiction
Nature of contents
bibliography
NLM call number
QA 276 G459c 2002
http://library.link/vocab/subjectName
  • Probabilities
  • Mathematical statistics
  • Uncertainty
  • Probabilités
  • Statistique mathématique
  • Incertitude
  • Mathematical statistics
  • Probabilities
  • Uncertainty
  • Statistieken
  • Risico's
  • Onzekerheid
  • Besluitvorming
  • Statistik
  • Anwendung
  • Wahrscheinlichkeit
  • Risikoanalyse
  • Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit
  • Probability
  • Statistics
  • Risk
  • Probabilities
Label
Calculated risks : how to know when numbers deceive you, Gerd Gigerenzer
Link
Instantiates
Publication
Bibliography note
Includes bibliographical references (pages 281-296) and index
Carrier category
volume
Carrier category code
nc
Carrier MARC source
rdacarrier
Content category
text
Content type code
txt
Content type MARC source
rdacontent
Contents
  • 4.
  • Insight
  • pt. 2.
  • Understanding uncertainties in the real world.
  • 5.
  • Breast cancer screening ;
  • 6.
  • (Un)informed consent ;
  • 7.
  • AIDS counseling ;
  • pt. 1.
  • 8.
  • Wife battering ;
  • 9.
  • Experts on trial ;
  • 10.
  • DNA fingerprinting ;
  • 11.
  • Violent people
  • pt. 3.
  • From innumeracy to insight.
  • Dare to know.
  • 12.
  • How innumeracy can be exploited ;
  • 13.
  • Fun problems ;
  • 14.
  • Teaching clear thinking
  • 1.
  • Uncertainty ;
  • 2.
  • The illusion of certainty ;
  • 3.
  • Innumeracy ;
Control code
ocm49902187
Dimensions
25 cm
Extent
viii, 310 pages
Isbn
9780743205566
Lccn
2002017010
Media category
unmediated
Media MARC source
rdamedia
Media type code
n
Other physical details
illustrations
System control number
  • (Sirsi) o49902187
  • (OCoLC)49902187
Label
Calculated risks : how to know when numbers deceive you, Gerd Gigerenzer
Link
Publication
Bibliography note
Includes bibliographical references (pages 281-296) and index
Carrier category
volume
Carrier category code
nc
Carrier MARC source
rdacarrier
Content category
text
Content type code
txt
Content type MARC source
rdacontent
Contents
  • 4.
  • Insight
  • pt. 2.
  • Understanding uncertainties in the real world.
  • 5.
  • Breast cancer screening ;
  • 6.
  • (Un)informed consent ;
  • 7.
  • AIDS counseling ;
  • pt. 1.
  • 8.
  • Wife battering ;
  • 9.
  • Experts on trial ;
  • 10.
  • DNA fingerprinting ;
  • 11.
  • Violent people
  • pt. 3.
  • From innumeracy to insight.
  • Dare to know.
  • 12.
  • How innumeracy can be exploited ;
  • 13.
  • Fun problems ;
  • 14.
  • Teaching clear thinking
  • 1.
  • Uncertainty ;
  • 2.
  • The illusion of certainty ;
  • 3.
  • Innumeracy ;
Control code
ocm49902187
Dimensions
25 cm
Extent
viii, 310 pages
Isbn
9780743205566
Lccn
2002017010
Media category
unmediated
Media MARC source
rdamedia
Media type code
n
Other physical details
illustrations
System control number
  • (Sirsi) o49902187
  • (OCoLC)49902187

Library Locations

    • Waubonsee: Sugar Grove Campus - Todd LibraryBorrow it
      Collins Hall 2nd Floor Waubonsee Community College Route 47 at Waubonsee Drive, Sugar Grove, IL, 60554-9454, US
      41.7974 -88.45785
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